Thursday Night · 2026 season
Week 1 slate
Bet it. Do it. Love it.
Mr. TNF's desk — model vs market, tickets vs dollars. Punch the number, catch the RLM, fire the bomb.
Wed 8:20 PM · NBC
NE
Patriots
SEA
Seahawks
Model score
19.0–22.8
Spread
Mkt SEA -3.5
Mod SEA -4
Total
Mkt 44.5
Mod 42
Best play
Under 44.5
+10.4% · 2.5u · -110
on SEA
Δ -16%
Thu 8:35 PM · Netflix · Neutral
SF
49ers
LAR
Rams
Model score
21.1–24.5
Spread
Mkt LAR -3.5
Mod LAR -3.5
Total
Mkt 48.5
Mod 45.5
Best play
Under 48.5
+11.6% · 2.5u · -110
on LAR
Δ -3%
Sun 1:00 PM · FOX
TB
Buccaneers
CIN
Bengals
Model score
24.0–27.6
Spread
Mkt CIN -3.5
Mod CIN -3.5
Total
Mkt 51.5
Mod 51.5
Best play
No +EV at this juice
on CIN
Δ -7%
Sun 1:00 PM · FOX
NO
Saints
DET
Lions
Model score
17.2–29.0
Spread
Mkt DET -7
Mod DET -12
Total
Mkt 48.5
Mod 46
Best play
DET -7
+21.3% · 2.5u · -110
on DET
Δ -8%
Sun 1:00 PM · CBS
NYJ
Jets
TEN
Titans
Model score
18.5–21.2
Spread
Mkt TEN -3
Mod TEN -2.5
Total
Mkt 38.5
Mod 39.5
Best play
No +EV at this juice
on TEN
Δ -6%
Sun 1:00 PM · CBS
BAL
Ravens
IND
Colts
Model score
26.2–20.4
Spread
Mkt IND +3.5
Mod IND +6
Total
Mkt 48.5
Mod 46.5
Best play
BAL -3.5
+8.0% · 2u · -110
on BAL
Δ +23%
Sun 1:00 PM · FOX
ATL
Falcons
PIT
Steelers
Model score
18.9–22.6
Spread
Mkt PIT -3
Mod PIT -3.5
Total
Mkt 41.5
Mod 41.5
Best play
No +EV at this juice
on PIT
Δ -16%
Sun 1:00 PM · FOX
CHI
Bears
CAR
Panthers
Model score
23.6–20.6
Spread
Mkt CAR +2.5
Mod CAR +3
Total
Mkt 47.5
Mod 44
Best play
Under 47.5
+13.8% · 2.5u · -110
on CHI
Δ +3%
Sun 1:00 PM · CBS
CLE
Browns
JAX
Jaguars
Model score
16.5–23.9
Spread
Mkt JAX -7.5
Mod JAX -7.5
Total
Mkt 40.5
Mod 40.5
Best play
CLE ML
+12.7% · 1u · +280
on JAX
Δ -17%
Sun 1:00 PM · CBS
BUF
Bills
HOU
Texans
Model score
22.7–21.3
Spread
Mkt HOU +1.5
Mod HOU +1.5
Total
Mkt 44.5
Mod 44
Best play
No +EV at this juice
on BUF
Δ -18%
Sun 4:25 PM · FOX
MIA
Dolphins
LV
Raiders
Model score
19.5–22.5
Spread
Mkt LV -3.5
Mod LV -3
Total
Mkt 40.5
Mod 42
Best play
MIA ML
+5.7% · 1u · +155
on LV
Δ -15%
Sun 4:25 PM · CBS
GB
Packers
MIN
Vikings
Model score
21.7–23.1
Spread
Mkt MIN -1.5
Mod MIN -1.5
Total
Mkt 45.5
Mod 45
Best play
No +EV at this juice
on MIN
Δ +8%
Sun 4:25 PM · FOX
WAS
Commanders
PHI
Eagles
Model score
19.7–24.7
Spread
Mkt PHI -4.5
Mod PHI -5
Total
Mkt 47.5
Mod 44.5
Best play
Under 47.5
+12.7% · 2.5u · -110
on PHI
Δ -18%
Sun 4:25 PM · CBS
ARI
Cardinals
LAC
Chargers
Model score
18.0–26.4
Spread
Mkt LAC -10.5
Mod LAC -8.5
Total
Mkt 46.5
Mod 44.5
Best play
ARI ML
+36.1% · 2.5u · +400
on LAC
Δ -17%
Sun 8:20 PM · NBC
DAL
Cowboys
NYG
Giants
Model score
25.3–22.4
Spread
Mkt NYG +2.5
Mod NYG +3
Total
Mkt 48.5
Mod 47.5
Best play
No +EV at this juice
on DAL
Δ +8%
Mon 8:15 PM · ESPN
DEN
Broncos
KC
Chiefs
Model score
17.8–21.6
Spread
Mkt KC -3
Mod KC -4
Total
Mkt 42.5
Mod 39.5
Best play
Under 42.5
+12.3% · 2.5u · -110
on KC
Δ -15%