How the number is made

Expected points

Each team has an offensive rating (points scored vs an average defense) and a defensive rating (points allowed vs an average offense). League mean is 22.6.

homePts = home.off + (away.def − league) + HFA/2 + rest + injuries + coaching + pace
awayPts = away.off + (home.def − league) − HFA/2 + rest + injuries + coaching + pace

Neutral sites cut home-field to +0.4. Pace is the average of both teams' play-volume index. Rest: short week (≤4 days) is −1.1, extra rest (≥9) is +0.45. Offseason rest (10+ days) is ignored so Week 1 is a clean rating vs rating.

How the board updates

Start from league average, walk every 2025 regular-season final (opponent-adjusted, blowouts damped), blend toward our 2026 openers, then apply each 2026 final as it posts. Offense, defense, and pace move with the tape. Power is rebuilt from those two sides. The slate reads this board — not a visitor's notepad.

Waiting on the tape…

Spread, total, moneyline

modelSpread (home) = −round_half(homePts − awayPts)
modelTotal          =  round_half(homePts + awayPts)
P(home covers s)    =  Φ((margin + marketSpread) / σ)
P(over t)           =  Φ((projTotal − marketTotal) / σ_total)

σ for margins is 13.86 (NFL historical). Totals use 13.5. Projected totals are regressed 40% toward the league mean so two stout defenses don't produce a 35-point game. EV at −110 needs 52.38% to break even.

Your unit

Pick dollars or units, then set what 1 unit is worth. That's your bankroll display — not the model.

Sharp flags

• Differential = money% − bet% on the favorite. Highlighted at +10 / +15 / +20.
• Sharp when |Δ| ≥ 10. The side with more money than tickets is the sharp side.
• RLM when the spread or total moves toward the side with fewer bets. Never a moneyline.
• TNF BOMB when model edge ≥ 3%, money differential ≥ 15%, RLM is on, and model + sharp agree — on that spread or total. A moneyline can never be a bomb.