Sun 4:25 PM · CBS · Inglewood, CA

ARI

ARI @ LAC

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers

LAC

Sharp ARI Δ-17Public steamModel + sharp

Model score

18.0 – 26.4

ARI 18.0 · LAC 26.4

Model vs market spread

LAC -8.5

Market LAC -10.5 · Δ -2.0

Model vs market total

44.5

Market 46.5 · Δ 2.0

Best play

EV vs listed juice. Units are ¼ Kelly, capped at 2.5u.

Side

ARI ML

Edge

+36.1%

Win%

27.2%

Units

2.5u

LAC -10.5-16.0% · 44%

ARI +10.5+7.0% · 56%

Over 46.5-16.0% · 44%

Under 46.5+7.0% · 56%

LAC ML -550-14.0% · 73%

ARI ML +400+36.1% · 27%

Sharp money

Favorite is LAC. Tickets vs dollars, line move, and RLM update live as you type.

% of bets on favorite

% of money on favorite

Opening spread (home)

Current spread (home)

Spread juice

Current total

Bets

78%

Money

61%

on LAC

Δ -17%

Sharp on ARI · 15%+ differential

Public steam — heavy tickets, money not following.

Open → now -9.5 → -10.5

Move toward LAC

No reverse line movement.

Model and sharp money are on the same side.

Manual adjustments

Points added to that team's expected score. Weather subtracts from the total (split both sides).

LAC injury

ARI injury

Weather (total)

LAC extra HFA / split

LAC rest override

ARI rest override

LAC coaching

ARI coaching

Why the number

Power gap LAC 6.6 pts
Home field LAC +1.8
Dome — weather largely off the board

Model ML LAC -267 / ARI +267 · P(home win) 72.8%