ATL @ PIT

Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers

PIT

Sharp ATL Δ-16Reverse line movement

Model score

18.9 – 22.6

ATL 18.9 · PIT 22.6

Model vs market spread

PIT -3.5

Market PIT -3 · Δ 0.5

Model vs market total

41.5

Market 41.5 · Δ 0.0

Best play

EV vs listed juice. Units are ¼ Kelly, capped at 2.5u.

Nothing clears 1.8% EV at current numbers. Shop juice or wait for a move.

PIT -3-0.7% · 52%

ATL +3-8.4% · 48%

Over 41.5-4.6% · 50%

Under 41.5-4.5% · 50%

PIT ML -155-0.4% · 61%

ATL ML +135-7.2% · 39%

Sharp money

Favorite is PIT. Tickets vs dollars, line move, and RLM update live as you type.

% of bets on favorite

% of money on favorite

Opening spread (home)

Current spread (home)

Spread juice

Current total

Bets

63%

Money

47%

on PIT

Δ -16%

Sharp on ATL · 15%+ differential

Open → now -3.5 → -3

Move toward ATL

RLM — line is moving against the majority of bets.

Model and sharp money are not aligned.

Manual adjustments

Points added to that team's expected score. Weather subtracts from the total (split both sides).

PIT injury

ATL injury

Weather (total)

PIT extra HFA / split

PIT rest override

ATL rest override

PIT coaching

ATL coaching

Why the number

Power gap PIT 1.3 pts
Home field PIT +2.4
ATL offense (22.6) vs PIT defense (19.0) is a plus matchup

Model ML PIT -153 / ATL +153 · P(home win) 60.5%