Sun 1:00 PM · CBS · Indianapolis, IN

BAL

BAL @ IND

Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts

IND

TNF BombSharp BAL Δ+23Reverse line movementModel + sharp

Model score

26.2 – 20.4

BAL 26.2 · IND 20.4

Model vs market spread

IND +6

Market IND +3.5 · Δ -2.5

Model vs market total

46.5

Market 48.5 · Δ 2.0

Best play

EV vs listed juice. Units are ¼ Kelly, capped at 2.5u.

Side

BAL -3.5

Edge

+8.0%

Win%

56.6%

Units

IND +3.5-17.1% · 43%

BAL -3.5+8.0% · 57%

Over 48.5-15.5% · 44%

Under 48.5+6.4% · 56%

IND ML +155-13.9% · 34%

BAL ML -180+3.0% · 66%

Sharp money

Favorite is BAL. Tickets vs dollars, line move, and RLM update live as you type.

% of bets on favorite

% of money on favorite

Opening spread (home)

Current spread (home)

Spread juice

Current total

Bets

41%

Money

64%

on BAL

Δ +23%

Sharp on BAL · 20%+ differential

Open → now +2.5 → +3.5

Move toward BAL

RLM — line is moving against the majority of bets.

Model and sharp money are on the same side.

TNF BOMB — edge + money diff + RLM all fire.

Manual adjustments

Points added to that team's expected score. Weather subtracts from the total (split both sides).

IND injury

BAL injury

Weather (total)

IND extra HFA / split

IND rest override

BAL rest override

IND coaching

BAL coaching

Why the number

Power gap BAL 7.8 pts
Home field IND +2.0
BAL offense (28.0) vs IND defense (22.2) is a plus matchup
Retractable roof — weather largely off the board

Model ML IND +196 / BAL -196 · P(home win) 33.8%