BUF @ HOU

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans

HOU

Sharp HOU Δ-18Public steamModel + sharp

Model score

22.7 – 21.3

BUF 22.7 · HOU 21.3

Model vs market spread

HOU +1.5

Market HOU +1.5 · Δ 0.0

Model vs market total

Market 44.5 · Δ 0.5

Best play

EV vs listed juice. Units are ¼ Kelly, capped at 2.5u.

Nothing clears 1.8% EV at current numbers. Shop juice or wait for a move.

HOU +1.5-4.0% · 50%

BUF -1.5-5.1% · 50%

Over 44.5-7.7% · 48%

Under 44.5-1.4% · 52%

HOU ML +105-5.7% · 46%

BUF ML -125-2.8% · 54%

Sharp money

Favorite is BUF. Tickets vs dollars, line move, and RLM update live as you type.

% of bets on favorite

% of money on favorite

Opening spread (home)

Current spread (home)

Spread juice

Current total

Bets

69%

Money

51%

on BUF

Δ -18%

Sharp on HOU · 15%+ differential

Public steam — heavy tickets, money not following.

Open → now +1 → +1.5

Move toward BUF

No reverse line movement.

Model and sharp money are on the same side.

Manual adjustments

Points added to that team's expected score. Weather subtracts from the total (split both sides).

HOU injury

BUF injury

Weather (total)

HOU extra HFA / split

HOU rest override

BUF rest override

HOU coaching

BUF coaching

Why the number

Power gap BUF 3.6 pts
Home field HOU +2.2
BUF offense (26.4) vs HOU defense (19.6) is a plus matchup
Retractable roof — weather largely off the board

Model ML HOU +117 / BUF -117 · P(home win) 46.0%