Sun 1:00 PM · FOX · Charlotte, NC
CHICAR
CHI @ CAR
Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers
Reverse line movement
Model score
23.6 – 20.6
CHI 23.6 · CAR 20.6
Model vs market spread
CAR +3
Market CAR +2.5 · Δ -0.5
Model vs market total
44
Market 47.5 · Δ 3.5
Best play
EV vs listed juice. Units are ¼ Kelly, capped at 2.5u.
Side
Under 47.5
Edge
+13.8%
Win%
59.6%
Units
2.5u
CAR +2.5-7.3% · 49%
CHI -2.5-1.8% · 51%
Over 47.5-22.9% · 40%
Under 47.5+13.8% · 60%
CAR ML +125-6.8% · 41%
CHI ML -145-1.0% · 59%
Sharp money
Favorite is CHI. Tickets vs dollars, line move, and RLM update live as you type.
Bets
58%
Money
61%
on CHI
Δ +3%
No sharp differential yet (≥10%)
Open → now +3 → +2.5
Move toward CAR
RLM — line is moving against the majority of bets.
Model and sharp money are not aligned.
Manual adjustments
Points added to that team's expected score. Weather subtracts from the total (split both sides).
Why the number
- Power gap CHI 4.8 pts
- Home field CAR +1.8
Model ML CAR +141 / CHI -141 · P(home win) 41.4%