Sun 1:00 PM · CBS · Jacksonville, FL

CLE

CLE @ JAX

Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars

JAX

Sharp CLE Δ-17Public steamModel + sharp

Model score

16.5 – 23.9

CLE 16.5 · JAX 23.9

Model vs market spread

JAX -7.5

Market JAX -7.5 · Δ 0.0

Model vs market total

40.5

Market 40.5 · Δ 0.0

Best play

EV vs listed juice. Units are ¼ Kelly, capped at 2.5u.

Side

CLE ML

Edge

+12.7%

Win%

29.7%

Units

JAX -7.5-5.1% · 50%

CLE +7.5-4.0% · 50%

Over 40.5-4.6% · 50%

Under 40.5-4.5% · 50%

JAX ML -360-10.1% · 70%

CLE ML +280+12.7% · 30%

Sharp money

Favorite is JAX. Tickets vs dollars, line move, and RLM update live as you type.

% of bets on favorite

% of money on favorite

Opening spread (home)

Current spread (home)

Spread juice

Current total

Bets

71%

Money

54%

on JAX

Δ -17%

Sharp on CLE · 15%+ differential

Public steam — heavy tickets, money not following.

Open → now -6.5 → -7.5

Move toward JAX

No reverse line movement.

Model and sharp money are on the same side.

Manual adjustments

Points added to that team's expected score. Weather subtracts from the total (split both sides).

JAX injury

CLE injury

Weather (total)

JAX extra HFA / split

JAX rest override

CLE rest override

JAX coaching

CLE coaching

Why the number

Power gap JAX 5.4 pts
Home field JAX +2.0
Slow combined pace 0.95 — total suppressed

Model ML JAX -237 / CLE +237 · P(home win) 70.3%