DAL @ NYG

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants

NYG

Reverse line movement

Model score

25.3 – 22.4

DAL 25.3 · NYG 22.4

Model vs market spread

NYG +3

Market NYG +2.5 · Δ -0.5

Model vs market total

47.5

Market 48.5 · Δ 1.0

Best play

EV vs listed juice. Units are ¼ Kelly, capped at 2.5u.

Nothing clears 1.8% EV at current numbers. Shop juice or wait for a move.

NYG +2.5-6.7% · 49%

DAL -2.5-2.3% · 51%

Over 48.5-9.5% · 47%

Under 48.5+0.4% · 53%

NYG ML +125-6.1% · 42%

DAL ML -145-1.5% · 58%

Sharp money

Favorite is DAL. Tickets vs dollars, line move, and RLM update live as you type.

% of bets on favorite

% of money on favorite

Opening spread (home)

Current spread (home)

Spread juice

Current total

Bets

62%

Money

70%

on DAL

Δ +8%

No sharp differential yet (≥10%)

Open → now +3 → +2.5

Move toward NYG

RLM — line is moving against the majority of bets.

Model and sharp money are not aligned.

Manual adjustments

Points added to that team's expected score. Weather subtracts from the total (split both sides).

NYG injury

DAL injury

Weather (total)

NYG extra HFA / split

NYG rest override

DAL rest override

NYG coaching

DAL coaching

Why the number

Power gap DAL 4.6 pts
Home field NYG +1.7

Model ML NYG +140 / DAL -140 · P(home win) 41.7%