Mon 8:15 PM · ESPN · Kansas City, MO

DEN

DEN @ KC

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs

Sharp DEN Δ-15Public steamReverse line movement

Model score

17.8 – 21.6

DEN 17.8 · KC 21.6

Model vs market spread

KC -4

Market KC -3 · Δ 1.0

Model vs market total

39.5

Market 42.5 · Δ 3.0

Best play

EV vs listed juice. Units are ¼ Kelly, capped at 2.5u.

Side

Under 42.5

Edge

+12.3%

Win%

58.8%

Units

2.5u

KC -3-0.2% · 52%

DEN +3-8.9% · 48%

Over 42.5-21.4% · 41%

Under 42.5+12.3% · 59%

KC ML -155+0.0% · 61%

DEN ML +135-7.9% · 39%

Sharp money

Favorite is KC. Tickets vs dollars, line move, and RLM update live as you type.

% of bets on favorite

% of money on favorite

Opening spread (home)

Current spread (home)

Spread juice

Current total

Bets

71%

Money

56%

on KC

Δ -15%

Sharp on DEN · 15%+ differential

Public steam — heavy tickets, money not following.

Open → now -3.5 → -3

Move toward DEN

RLM — line is moving against the majority of bets.

Model and sharp money are not aligned.

Manual adjustments

Points added to that team's expected score. Weather subtracts from the total (split both sides).

KC injury

DEN injury

Weather (total)

KC extra HFA / split

KC rest override

DEN rest override

KC coaching

DEN coaching

Why the number

Power gap KC 1.2 pts
Home field KC +2.6
KC offense (23.8) vs DEN defense (17.4) is a plus matchup
DEN offense (21.8) vs KC defense (18.2) is a plus matchup

Model ML KC -155 / DEN +155 · P(home win) 60.8%