Sun 4:25 PM · CBS · Minneapolis, MN
GBMIN
GB @ MIN
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
Model score
21.7 – 23.1
GB 21.7 · MIN 23.1
Model vs market spread
MIN -1.5
Market MIN -1.5 · Δ 0.0
Model vs market total
45
Market 45.5 · Δ 0.5
Best play
EV vs listed juice. Units are ¼ Kelly, capped at 2.5u.
Nothing clears 1.8% EV at current numbers. Shop juice or wait for a move.
MIN -1.5-5.1% · 50%
GB +1.5-4.0% · 50%
Over 45.5-8.8% · 48%
Under 45.5-0.3% · 52%
MIN ML -125-2.8% · 54%
GB ML +105-5.7% · 46%
Sharp money
Favorite is MIN. Tickets vs dollars, line move, and RLM update live as you type.
Bets
54%
Money
62%
on MIN
Δ +8%
No sharp differential yet (≥10%)
Open → now -1 → -1.5
Move toward MIN
No reverse line movement.
Model and sharp money are not aligned.
Manual adjustments
Points added to that team's expected score. Weather subtracts from the total (split both sides).
Why the number
- Power gap GB 0.7 pts
- Home field MIN +2.1
- MIN offense (23.6) vs GB defense (20.9) is a plus matchup
- GB offense (24.8) vs MIN defense (20.4) is a plus matchup
- Dome — weather largely off the board
Model ML MIN -117 / GB +117 · P(home win) 54.0%