MIA @ LV

Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders

Sharp MIA Δ-15Model + sharp

Model score

19.5 – 22.5

MIA 19.5 · LV 22.5

Model vs market spread

LV -3

Market LV -3.5 · Δ -0.5

Model vs market total

Market 40.5 · Δ -1.5

Best play

EV vs listed juice. Units are ¼ Kelly, capped at 2.5u.

Side

MIA ML

Edge

+5.7%

Win%

41.4%

Units

LV -3.5-7.3% · 49%

MIA +3.5-1.8% · 51%

Over 40.5+3.9% · 54%

Under 40.5-13.0% · 46%

LV ML -180-8.9% · 59%

MIA ML +155+5.7% · 41%

Sharp money

Favorite is LV. Tickets vs dollars, line move, and RLM update live as you type.

% of bets on favorite

% of money on favorite

Opening spread (home)

Current spread (home)

Spread juice

Current total

Bets

59%

Money

44%

on LV

Δ -15%

Sharp on MIA · 15%+ differential

Open → now -3 → -3.5

Move toward LV

No reverse line movement.

Model and sharp money are on the same side.

Manual adjustments

Points added to that team's expected score. Weather subtracts from the total (split both sides).

LV injury

MIA injury

Weather (total)

LV extra HFA / split

LV rest override

MIA rest override

LV coaching

MIA coaching

Why the number

Power gap LV 1.2 pts
Home field LV +1.8
Dome — weather largely off the board

Model ML LV -141 / MIA +141 · P(home win) 58.6%