Wed 8:20 PM · NBC · Seattle, WA

NE @ SEA

New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks

SEA

Sharp NE Δ-16Public steam

Model score

19.0 – 22.8

NE 19.0 · SEA 22.8

Model vs market spread

SEA -4

Market SEA -3.5 · Δ 0.5

Model vs market total

Market 44.5 · Δ 2.5

Best play

EV vs listed juice. Units are ¼ Kelly, capped at 2.5u.

Side

Under 44.5

Edge

+10.4%

Win%

57.9%

Units

2.5u

SEA -3.5-2.9% · 51%

NE +3.5-6.2% · 49%

Over 44.5-19.5% · 42%

Under 44.5+10.4% · 58%

SEA ML -180-5.4% · 61%

NE ML +155-0.0% · 39%

Sharp money

Favorite is SEA. Tickets vs dollars, line move, and RLM update live as you type.

% of bets on favorite

% of money on favorite

Opening spread (home)

Current spread (home)

Spread juice

Current total

Bets

68%

Money

52%

on SEA

Δ -16%

Sharp on NE · 15%+ differential

Public steam — heavy tickets, money not following.

Open → now -3 → -3.5

Move toward SEA

No reverse line movement.

Model and sharp money are not aligned.

Manual adjustments

Points added to that team's expected score. Weather subtracts from the total (split both sides).

SEA injury

NE injury

Weather (total)

SEA extra HFA / split

SEA rest override

NE rest override

SEA coaching

NE coaching

Why the number

Power gap SEA 1.4 pts
Home field SEA +2.4
SEA offense (24.4) vs NE defense (18.8) is a plus matchup
NE offense (24.0) vs SEA defense (17.8) is a plus matchup

Model ML SEA -155 / NE +155 · P(home win) 60.8%