Sun 1:00 PM · FOX · Detroit, MI
NODET
NO @ DET
New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions
Model score
17.2 – 29.0
NO 17.2 · DET 29.0
Model vs market spread
DET -12
Market DET -7 · Δ 5.0
Model vs market total
46
Market 48.5 · Δ 2.5
Best play
EV vs listed juice. Units are ¼ Kelly, capped at 2.5u.
Side
DET -7
Edge
+21.3%
Win%
63.5%
Units
2.5u
DET -7+21.3% · 64%
NO +7-30.4% · 36%
Over 48.5-17.2% · 43%
Under 48.5+8.1% · 57%
DET ML -340+3.9% · 80%
NO ML +270-27.0% · 20%
Sharp money
Favorite is DET. Tickets vs dollars, line move, and RLM update live as you type.
Bets
74%
Money
66%
on DET
Δ -8%
No sharp differential yet (≥10%)
Open → now -6.5 → -7
Move toward DET
No reverse line movement.
Model and sharp money are not aligned.
Manual adjustments
Points added to that team's expected score. Weather subtracts from the total (split both sides).
Why the number
- Power gap DET 9.5 pts
- Home field DET +2.3
- DET offense (27.2) vs NO defense (23.6) is a plus matchup
- Dome — weather largely off the board
Model ML DET -407 / NO +407 · P(home win) 80.3%