NYJ @ TEN

New York Jets at Tennessee Titans

TEN

Model score

18.5 – 21.2

NYJ 18.5 · TEN 21.2

Model vs market spread

TEN -2.5

Market TEN -3 · Δ -0.5

Model vs market total

39.5

Market 38.5 · Δ -1.0

Best play

EV vs listed juice. Units are ¼ Kelly, capped at 2.5u.

Nothing clears 1.8% EV at current numbers. Shop juice or wait for a move.

TEN -3-6.2% · 49%

NYJ +3-2.9% · 51%

Over 38.5+1.8% · 53%

Under 38.5-10.9% · 47%

TEN ML -155-5.0% · 58%

NYJ ML +135-0.6% · 42%

Sharp money

Favorite is TEN. Tickets vs dollars, line move, and RLM update live as you type.

% of bets on favorite

% of money on favorite

Opening spread (home)

Current spread (home)

Spread juice

Current total

Bets

55%

Money

49%

on TEN

Δ -6%

No sharp differential yet (≥10%)

Open → now -2.5 → -3

Move toward TEN

No reverse line movement.

Model and sharp money are not aligned.

Manual adjustments

Points added to that team's expected score. Weather subtracts from the total (split both sides).

TEN injury

NYJ injury

Weather (total)

TEN extra HFA / split

TEN rest override

NYJ rest override

TEN coaching

NYJ coaching

Why the number

Power gap TEN 0.8 pts
Home field TEN +1.9
Slow combined pace 0.94 — total suppressed

Model ML TEN -137 / NYJ +137 · P(home win) 57.7%