Thu 8:35 PM · Netflix · Melbourne, AUS

SF @ LAR

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams

LAR

Model score

21.1 – 24.5

SF 21.1 · LAR 24.5

Model vs market spread

LAR -3.5

Market LAR -3.5 · Δ 0.0

Model vs market total

45.5

Market 48.5 · Δ 3.0

Best play

EV vs listed juice. Units are ¼ Kelly, capped at 2.5u.

Side

Under 48.5

Edge

+11.6%

Win%

58.5%

Units

2.5u

LAR -3.5-5.1% · 50%

SF +3.5-4.0% · 50%

Over 48.5-20.7% · 42%

Under 48.5+11.6% · 58%

LAR ML -180-7.2% · 60%

SF ML +155+2.8% · 40%

Sharp money

Favorite is LAR. Tickets vs dollars, line move, and RLM update live as you type.

% of bets on favorite

% of money on favorite

Opening spread (home)

Current spread (home)

Spread juice

Current total

Bets

61%

Money

58%

on LAR

Δ -3%

No sharp differential yet (≥10%)

Open → now -3 → -3.5

Move toward LAR

No reverse line movement.

Model and sharp money are not aligned.

Manual adjustments

Points added to that team's expected score. Weather subtracts from the total (split both sides).

LAR injury

SF injury

Weather (total)

LAR extra HFA / split

LAR rest override

SF rest override

LAR coaching

SF coaching

Why the number

Power gap LAR 3.0 pts
Neutral site — home-field cut to +0.4
LAR offense (25.6) vs SF defense (21.4) is a plus matchup

Model ML LAR -148 / SF +148 · P(home win) 59.7%