Sun 1:00 PM · FOX · Cincinnati, OH

TB @ CIN

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals

CIN

Model score

24.0 – 27.6

TB 24.0 · CIN 27.6

Model vs market spread

CIN -3.5

Market CIN -3.5 · Δ 0.0

Model vs market total

51.5

Market 51.5 · Δ 0.0

Best play

EV vs listed juice. Units are ¼ Kelly, capped at 2.5u.

Nothing clears 1.8% EV at current numbers. Shop juice or wait for a move.

CIN -3.5-4.0% · 50%

TB +3.5-5.1% · 50%

Over 51.5-3.7% · 50%

Under 51.5-5.4% · 50%

CIN ML -180-6.3% · 60%

TB ML +155+1.4% · 40%

Sharp money

Favorite is CIN. Tickets vs dollars, line move, and RLM update live as you type.

% of bets on favorite

% of money on favorite

Opening spread (home)

Current spread (home)

Spread juice

Current total

Bets

64%

Money

57%

on CIN

Δ -7%

No sharp differential yet (≥10%)

Open → now -3 → -3.5

Move toward CIN

No reverse line movement.

Model and sharp money are not aligned.

Manual adjustments

Points added to that team's expected score. Weather subtracts from the total (split both sides).

CIN injury

TB injury

Weather (total)

CIN extra HFA / split

CIN rest override

TB rest override

CIN coaching

TB coaching

Why the number

Power gap CIN 1.6 pts
Home field CIN +2.0
CIN offense (27.6) vs TB defense (23.6) is a plus matchup
Fast combined pace 1.04 — total inflated

Model ML CIN -152 / TB +152 · P(home win) 60.2%