Sun 4:25 PM · FOX · Philadelphia, PA

WAS

WAS @ PHI

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles

PHI

Sharp WAS Δ-18Public steamReverse line movement

Model score

19.7 – 24.7

WAS 19.7 · PHI 24.7

Model vs market spread

PHI -5

Market PHI -4.5 · Δ 0.5

Model vs market total

44.5

Market 47.5 · Δ 3.0

Best play

EV vs listed juice. Units are ¼ Kelly, capped at 2.5u.

Side

Under 47.5

Edge

+12.7%

Win%

59.0%

Units

2.5u

PHI -4.5-1.8% · 51%

WAS +4.5-7.3% · 49%

Over 47.5-21.8% · 41%

Under 47.5+12.7% · 59%

PHI ML -210-5.4% · 64%

WAS ML +175-1.2% · 36%

Sharp money

Favorite is PHI. Tickets vs dollars, line move, and RLM update live as you type.

% of bets on favorite

% of money on favorite

Opening spread (home)

Current spread (home)

Spread juice

Current total

Bets

66%

Money

48%

on PHI

Δ -18%

Sharp on WAS · 15%+ differential

Public steam — heavy tickets, money not following.

Open → now -5.5 → -4.5

Move toward WAS

RLM — line is moving against the majority of bets.

Model and sharp money are not aligned.

Manual adjustments

Points added to that team's expected score. Weather subtracts from the total (split both sides).

PHI injury

WAS injury

Weather (total)

PHI extra HFA / split

PHI rest override

WAS rest override

PHI coaching

WAS coaching

Why the number

Power gap PHI 2.8 pts
Home field PHI +2.2
PHI offense (24.6) vs WAS defense (21.3) is a plus matchup
WAS offense (23.9) vs PHI defense (19.2) is a plus matchup

Model ML PHI -178 / WAS +178 · P(home win) 64.1%